Correlations · charts, timelines, signal interactions
How the data actually correlates
A single statistic in isolation is misleading. The interesting questions are about relationships — does treatment capacity move overdose deaths? Does transit access shift recidivism? Does jail substance-use prevalence track with county-level OD rates? This page maps those signal-to-signal relationships across southern Indiana with charts, a correlation matrix, and a 2020–2025 timeline of system-level events.
Historical analysis snapshot. The charts, matrix, and timeline on this page summarize finalized public-record data through the periods labeled on each (overdose figures rest on the finalized 2019–2023 county series; the fentanyl-share trajectory is fit to 2020–2025 and projected forward). They are an analytical reference, not a live feed. For current court activity see Opinions, Appellate, and Cases.
The correlation matrix — what moves what
Direction estimates based on aggregated public-record patterns + national literature on rural-county criminal-justice and overdose dynamics. Red = reinforcing — more of A produces more of B (typically bad-outcome direction). Green = protective — more of A produces less of B (typically good-outcome direction). Darker shade = stronger evidence. Reading note: in statistical terms these are positive (red) and negative (green) correlations — we use plain-language labels here so the colors and meaning match.
| → signal | OD deaths /100k | IDOC releases /1k | Recidivism (3y) | Jail bookings /1k | Homelessness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Substance-use prevalence in jail | +++ | ++ | ++ | ++ | + |
| Treatment / MAT capacity (programs/1k) | −−− | − | −−− | − | − |
| Reentry-program coverage (HIRE/IRACS) | −− | · | −−− | −− | −− |
| Transit access (bus / car-pool / Free Ride) | − | · | −−− | − | −−− |
| Fentanyl-involved share of OD | +++ | + | + | + | + |
| Stable housing on release | −− | · | −−− | −− | −−− |
| Naloxone administrations /100k | −− | · | · | · | · |
Substance-use prevalence → OD deaths
Counties where 80%+ of jail bookings have substance-use history (per the Scott Co. 2022 study anchor) have OD-death rates 1.5–2x the state average. The pipeline runs jail → release → weeks 1–4 OD risk window.
HIRE / Goodwill / IRACS coverage → recidivism
The IRACS pilot at Scott County dropped recidivism from 26% pre-program to 9.5% after 2 years — while statewide IDOC recidivism climbed back up to 38.16% in 2024. Programs work; they just don’t blanket the geography.
Transit access → recidivism
Goodwill New Beginnings explicitly requires “reliable transportation or be on a bus route.” Counties without transit pilots see qualified candidates rejected purely on logistics. Free Ride opioid-settlement programs close part of this gap where they exist.
Stable housing → everything else
A reliable mailing address + 90 days of housing stability moves recidivism, OD risk, jail-booking risk, and homelessness simultaneously. The single highest-leverage intervention in the rural-IN reentry stack — THRIVE Transitional Housing, Centerstone, and Sunrise Recovery anchor this in southern IN.
Overdose deaths per 100,000 — comparison
Overdose deaths per 100,000 residents — finalized 2023 county series
Fentanyl-involved share of OD deaths — statewide trajectory
Indiana 2020–2025 (data) and 2026–2030 (logistic projection)
2020–2025 system-level timeline
When a county-level pattern hits the news vs. when the underlying data was already moving. Helps you see why a 2023 program announcement may take 12–24 months to show in the data.
Pandemic-era OD surge begins
Indiana drug-overdose deaths track the national pattern: fentanyl supply consolidation + reduced access to treatment during pandemic disruption. Sets the baseline the rest of the timeline measures against.
Fentanyl-OD cluster reported in Jackson County
Sheriff’s social-media posts document 14 confirmed fentanyl-OD deaths through July, with multiple cases requiring repeat-dose naloxone. Fentanyl found laced in counterfeit Oxy, Xanax, heroin, meth, cocaine, MDMA.
Scott County Jail Study published
85% inmate substance-use prevalence; 58% prior mental-health diagnosis. Recommends embedded social worker, no-juvenile-booking policy, 8-hr shift staffing model. Anchors all subsequent rural-IN jail proxy estimates.
IRACS pilot launches at Scott County Jail
Integrated Reentry & Correctional Support — state-funded via Indiana DMHA. Peer recovery coaches + reentry navigators on-site; post-release continuity-of-care.
Indiana 2023 OD baseline: 2,153 deaths, 51% fentanyl
The single most-cited statistic on this dashboard. Sets the anchor for the logistic projection of the fentanyl share through 2030.
Free Ride / opioid-settlement transit pilots launch
Some counties stand up “Free Ride”-style programs funded by opioid-settlement dollars to provide transit to court, treatment, and work. Coverage is patchwork — some counties have it, the next does not.
Cell-fire epidemic surfaces
Investigative reporting (13 News / WTHR) documents 20+ cell fires; multiple inmates burned, several deaths. Triggers Gov. Braun calls for action and IDOC fire-safety reforms.
Provisional 2024 dashboard signals an OD plateau
Early state-dashboard figures for 2024 suggested the rate was stabilizing/declining slightly vs. the finalized 2023 rate (~31.6/100k). Provisional, not yet a finalized county-level series — but the first directional shift in years.
IDOC operational population ~25,500–26,000
Stable y/y. Pull 2025 Adult Releases tables for per-county-of-admission counts to update Schema 2.
HIRE recidivism among completers: 14%
Far below the ~38% Indiana baseline. Demonstrates that the program-side of the system works — the gap is coverage, not effectiveness.